The Netherlands — 2023 Snap Election Summary

After migrant legislation triggered the collapse of Mark Rutte’s coalition government in July, snap elections were called to be held November 22nd of this year. With the end of this coalition government, after being head of state for four coalition governments, Mark Rutte, having led four coalition governments, stated that once his role as caretaker is over, he’ll be retiring from national politics.

Political Landscape

KEY ISSUES:

Along with much of the rest of Europe, migration is a top tier concern. The legislation that triggered these snap elections was an attempt to limit the number of asylum seekers the European country would be willing to take in.

The country is facing a housing crisis with government-commissioned research indicating that the country is short approximately 390,000 homes.

The green transition and who will pay for it is a top concern. As the world’s second largest agricultural exporter, this issue has been particularly contentious due to the ways various attempts at managing nitrogen have agitated farmers.

The government is also facing a handful of scandals. Since the earthquakes that hit the Groningen gas field and surrounding area, the government has been slow to compensate affected citizens. The Rutte government also entered legal troubles when it wrongly accused thousands of families of committing child benefit fraud. Additionally, the Netherlands has not been immune to the increased polarization many democracies have been experiencing in recent years. The trend in polarization has resulted in the proliferation of many small parties that have steadily been displacing the traditional parties of the center-right to the center-left.

How Dutch Politics Work

The Dutch parliament is bicameral with 150 MPs in their House of Representatives (lower), 75 seats in their Senate (upper). In the House it takes 76 seats to win a majority (it is highly unlikely for any party to win a majority on their own, especially during this election as GL-PvdA, NSC and VVD are currently neck and neck in the polls). The House of Representatives operates on the basis of proportional representation, with any party only needing to acquire 0.67% of the vote in order to get a seat in parliament. The Senate is made up of 75 seats representing the 12 provincial councils. It is less politically relevant as it can’t amend legislation, only pass or reject it. They also don’t meet as frequently and are paid only a fraction of what House Representatives get. Senators are appointed by electoral colleges working with provincial councils with each province getting approximately 1 vote per 100 residents.

Coalitions are formed by MPs appointing an “informateur” who identifies possible alliances. Parties explore possible arrangements laid out by the informateur until a workable coalition is found at which point the leader of the largest party begins the official coalition agreement. This can be a lengthy process, but it is as (if not more) important than who wins the most votes.

The Parties

THE MAJOR PARTIES

Green Left-Labour (GL-PvdA) — (social-democratic/green politics/center left to leftwing)

• Party Leader: Franz Timmermans — a former EU commissioner who led the Labour party to its historic 2019 victory in the EU parliament, has pledged to restore trust in politics and build a more sustainable future and a stronger Europe. Timmermans preferred governing partner between the other two major parties would be NSC’s Omtzigt. “I haven’t really heard anything that we couldn’t compromise on” Timmermans has said about working with Omtzigt. It also helps that Omtzigt hasn’t been clear about whether or not he even wants to be prime minister. In contrast with his willingness to form government with NSC, Timmermans is doing all that he can to avoid forming government with VVD.
• Platform: GL-PvdA is aiming to increase the minimum wage & income support, raise taxes on big companies & high earners, investing in clean energy and insulation (with the goal of reducing emissions by 65 percent by 2030 — above the 55 percent EU target), capping rents and boosting social housing. GL-PvdA approach to taxes is shifting the tax burden away from income and labor and toward wealth and profits. Part of how they plan to do accomplish this is by implementing a new top rate income tax.
• Notes: Some progressives in the Netherlands are optimistic that Timmermans’ success at the EU level could be replicated at the Dutch level. In a recent Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy analysis of party platforms, GL-PvdA shone in several categories. The findings concluded that the Green Left-Labour platform, if implemented, would produce the highest growth & lowest unemployment of the eight parties who submitted their platform to be analyzed. Likely allies include Democrats 66, Party for Animals & Volt.

Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) — (conservative-liberal /center-right)

• Party Leader: Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius — a former refugee to the Netherlands who wants to cut immigration levels significantly. If she were to win she’d become the country’s first female prime minister.
• Platform: “The VVD wants to introduce a two-tier refugee system, abolish permanent residency, allow citizenship only after 10 years, curb rents and boost private housebuilding. Unlike other major parties it has not ruled out a coalition with the far right.” — The Guardian
• Notes: VVD is the party of current caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte. They’re essentially the business interest economic liberal party with an icy attitude towards migrants.

New Social Contract (NSC) — (Christian democratic/center to center-right)

• Party Leader: Pieter Omtzigt — a former Christian Democrat MP and “centrist outsider” most known for exposing the child benefit scandal in which 31,000 parents were falsely accused of defrauding the government via the country's child benefit scheme.
• Party Platform: NSC’s declared focus is on “good governance” and “doing politics differently”. In many respects, this party could be seen as a fresh attempted return to a more centrist, socially minded, early post-war Christian democracy. The New Social Contract manifesto cites ideological inspiration coming from personalist & communitarian philosophy, virtue ethics and commitment to the social market economy. The manifesto also details aspirations for a highly accountable government. Omtzigt has also made clear that he wants to cut immigration, reform taxes and improve financial security for low-income families. In regard to migration, he’s proposed a two-tier approach differentiating between refugees of war that would receive slightly warmer reception or conflict and wealthier migrants moving simply for economic reasons that would receive greater scrutiny.
• Notes: NSC was born out of a break with the Christian Democratic Appeal over the appointment of Wopke Hoekstra as CDA party leader. Omtzigt has expressed openness to forming government with any of the other two major parties (although he’s not as optimistic as Timmermans about forming government with GL-PvdA — mostly due to differences over migration, climate & energy policy) but has ruled out forming government with PVV specifically. He’s been unclear about whether he will become prime minister if his party wins the plurality needed to form government.

MINOR PARTIES

Party for Freedom (PVV) — (rightwing populist/far-right)

• Party Leader: Geert Wilder — he’s compared the Quran to Mein Kampf he’s advocated for a ban on migrants from predominantly Muslim countries, he walks like, talks like and works with far-right leaders like Le Penn but he sees himself as a rightwing Thatcherite liberal. Despite fanboying Thatcher, he managed to briefly get banned from entering the United Kingdom in 2009 for his problematic views.
• Platform: The PVV wants to “de-Islamize” the Netherlands, cut back on climate regulations, beef up their police force and leave the European Union entirely.
• Notes: PVV has been gradually climbing in the polls, but as of yet they haven’t managed to become part of a governing coalition.

Farmers-Citizen Movement (BBB) — (agrarianism/right-wing)

• Party Leader: Caroline Van Der Plas — former CDA house representative, agricultural journalist and founder of BBB.
• Notes: BBB was born out of farmers’ protests that happened in 2019 over climate policies aimed at curbing nitrogen levels. Despite low polling numbers and a limited presence in the house, BBB is the single largest party in the senate due to its solid performance this spring.

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) — (Christian democratic/center-right)

• Party Leader: Henri Bontenbal
• Notes: Born in the 1970’s out of the Catholic Peoples Party, Anti-Revolutionary Party & Christian Historical Union, the CDA has been gradually sidelined over the past several years but especially within the past two years have experienced a drastic collapse in support.

Volt (euro-federalist/social liberal/center)

• Party Leader: Laurens Dassen — former banker
• Notes: While Volt intends to raise taxes significantly on big polluters, they’ve also indicated that they’d prefer to shift tax burdens away from business and onto families.

Democrats 66 (D66) — (center/social liberal)

• Party Leader: Rob Jetten
• Notes: D66 has seen a drastic collapse in support in the last two years.

Socialist Party (SP) — (democratic socialism/leftwing populist)

• Party Leader: Lilian Marijnissen
• Notes: Historically known as the Communist Party of the Netherlands it’s since moderated itself. SP has experienced significant decline in the polls in the last two years.

Right Answer 2021 (JA21) — (liberal conservatism/rightwing)

• Party Leader: Joost Eerdmans — he is a lifelong politician that has hopped around various parties of the right.

Christian Union (CU) — (economic center to center-left/social conservatism)

• Party Leader: Mirjam Bikker

Party for Animals (PvdD) — (animal rights/environmentalism/leftwing)

• Party Leader: Esther Ouwehand — former marketing manager

DENK (minority interests/center-left)

• Party Leader: Stephan van Baarle —a sociology major, formerly was active in the Labour Party.

50+ (pensioners interests)

• Party Leader: Gerard Van Hooft

Reformed Political Party (SGP) — (Christian right/rightwing)

• Party Leader: Chris Stoffer — civil engineer

Independent Politics Netherland (OPNL) — (regionalism/center)

• Party Leader: Auke van der Goot

GOUD — (pensioners interests/center)

• Party Leader: Liane Den Haan

More Direct Democracy — (center-right/direct democracy)

• Party Leader: Dorien Rookmaker

The recent Green Left-Labour alliance has successfully launched the member parties from sidelined “has-been” to main-player “will be” status making chances of social-democratic representation in government high. New Social Contract will likely also be a big winner. Their role as a traditionally centrist “anti-establishment” Christian democratic party presents a bit of a potential callback to past “Roman Red” coalitions (mostly Catholic confessional parties and the Labour Party working together to build out the welfare state). Their unconventional approach to centrist politics and popular appeal of Omtzigt is expected to peel away support from the center-right and left parties. The Freedom Party’s steady rise is a concerning elephant in the room that will be worth watching, especially since NSC’s Pieter Omtzigt has ruled out forming any kind of coalition with the far-right party. While the Farmer’s Citizen Movement isn’t likely to gain very many seats in the House, its outsized role in the Senate will have to be considered in the formation of any governing coalition.