Taiwan — 2024 General Election Summary
Taiwan heads to the polls this Saturday January 13th. It will be the first major election of 2024 as many election watchers gear up as ~4 billion of the world’s population gets to vote this year.
The biggest issue on the contested island is cross-strait China-Taiwan relations with the “Pan-Blue” camp of parties favoring closer ties with China (some actors within this camp are more outspoken about reunification than others) and the “Pan-Green” camp of parties favoring more independence from China (also containing actors across a spectrum of serious commitment to formal independence).
(While the main political axis shaping the islands political landscape is pro-unification or pro-independence rhetoric, it should be noted that all parties tend towards the status-quo in practice)
The country will get to vote for its president as well as its national legislature. ~Any party with more than 5% of the turnout is guaranteed a seat in the 113 seat legislature.~
The Candidates
William Lai (Lai Ching-Te) — Democratic Progressive Party (Taiwanese nationalism/progressivism/center to center-left)
A physician by trade, historically Lai has been more staunchly pro-independence back when he and Tsai were primarying against each other for president. Since then he has moderated his cross-strait position opting for the standard DPP position (The Republic of China, Taiwan is already an independent country so there is no need to declare independence a second time).
His pick for vice-president is former ambassador to the United States, Bi-Khim Hsiao. His decision to run with Bi drew ire from the opposition as an attempt to draw the U.S. closer but it also received negative feedback as Bi is half white.
His platform is to build 130,000 units of social housing, create incentives for companies to contribute more than 6% of a workers salary to their pension, significant investments into mental health in Taiwan, eliminating tuition fees for all high school students, raising the monthly minimum wage, expanding public benefits for vulnerable families and investing into childcare, to phase out of nuclear power by 2025 (opting instead for 50% natural gas, 20% coal and 30% renewables by 2025). He’s also expressed some reservations about the countries continued use of the death penalty despite its popularity. He has also expressed support for the countries LGBTQ+ community by stating that marriage equality “is not the end, it’s the starting point for diversity”.
On foreign policy, he has rejected the 1992 agreement that essentially expresses a commitment to the same “one country, two systems” language with the People’s Republic of China. He wants dialogue with China to have mutual respect. He and his party have worked hard to strengthen relations with other democratic nations such as Japan, the US and other European countries.
Lai is the continuity candidate as he would be replacing outgoing DPP leader, president Tsai Ing-Wen. He has been ahead in the polls in the months leading up to this election.
Ho You-Yi — Chinese Nationalist Party — KMT (Chinese nationalism/conservatism)
The former police chief was also once mayor of New Taipei city. Out of all the major parties running, the KMT has the best ties with the People’s Republic of China. The last KMT president, Ma Ying-Jeou, had signed a significant trade deal with the People’s Republic of China that has since made the island more economically dependent on its neighbor. This trade liberalization with the PRC may have brought desired investment at the time, but it has since hollowed out the Taiwanese economy making the nation more susceptible to Chinese influence in a way that may threaten Taiwanese sovereignty.
Ho’s untraditional presidential campaign has had more than a few blemishes over the course of this election cycle. One of the legislators in his party was accused of sharing classified information about locally manufactured submarines to the PRC. He and another presidential candidate, Ko Wen-Je, entered public negotiations over the possibility of a joint ticket that embarrassingly never came to fruition. His running mate Jaw Shaw-Kong is unabashedly pro-unification which has harmed the popularity of his overall ticket.
Ho’s platform includes a law that first time homebuyers wouldn’t have to pay interest for the first five years of taking out a mortgage (with the government paying for .05% of the interest in the remaining years), expanding free healthcare to the elderly based on household income, expand tax benefits for parents with kids 12 and under, gradual increases to the monthly minimum wage, free after school care until 7PM for kids attending public schools, his energy transition proposal offers less renewable energy but doesn’t phase out of nuclear energy at all.
Ko Wen-Je — Taiwan People’s Party — TPP (status quo, social liberalism, center)
Ko is a surgeon and former mayor of Taiwan’s largest city and capitol: Taipei. While Ko was initially a part of the Sunflower Movement (a movement protesting the passing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement CSSTA with the People’s Republic of China) Ko’s Taiwan People’s Party is intended to offer a middle of the road ticket between the independence leaning TPP and the reunification leaning KMT. As such the “turqoise” party capitalizes on parts of both electorates but generally bites a greater portion out of the KMT’s typical electorate.
Soft blue Ko presents himself as the “adult in the room”, as a “political outsider”, a bit of a populist and generally as a candidate for Taiwanese people who want to see something outside of typical rule by the DPP or KMT.
His running mate, Cynthia Wu, comes from a business background with a family that founded the Shin Kong Group (a prominent Taiwanese parent corporation for a plethora of subsidiary companies).
Ko’s platform includes increases in rental subsidies based on income, free healthcare for Taiwanese citizens age 65 and up, tax incentives for companies to contribute more to workers pensions, expand monthly child rearing subsidies to include parents with kids ages 6–12, expand maternity leave from 8 weeks to 14 weeks, legalizing surrogacy, extending mandatory education from 9 years to 13 years starting at 5 years old. He hasn’t outright opposed the countries use of the death penalty but he has brought up life in prison without parole as a potential compromise. His energy proposal would get Taiwan to the same percentage of renewable energy but would also include nuclear energy as well (45% natural gas, 15% coal, 30% renewable energy & 10% nuclear).
On brand with his opportunistic status quo style politics, he has suggested merely changing the name of the 1992 consensus. Contrary to both Lai and Hou, Ko has proposed joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) instead of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Terry Gou — Independent (no longer in the running)
While the infamous Foxconn billionaire Terry Gou campaigned before the deadline to register, he decided against it due to ongoing investigation into his business dealings in China.
His independent candidacy and colorful past support for the KMT and rejection of the KMT’s nomination process in 2020 and decision to run as an independent again added another layer of drama to this election cycle that may have contributed to the dent in KMT polling numbers.
Other aspects of the Taiwanese political landscape include…
Low birthrates, a super aging society, needed improvements to healthcare system, firefighter safety (calls for unionization despite ruling prohibiting unionization of public sector workers), needed improvements to migrant worker policy, logistical challenges to transitioning to renewable energy, handling relations with indigenous Formosans and grappling with the ever-developing Taiwanese identity.
While Lai continues to poll ahead of his two opponents, the pressure is on as Chinese president Xi Jinping continues to speak of reunification as a historical inevitability and as the Chinese government is scheduled to review the ECFA (a major trade deal struck when the KMT last held the presidency) the day before election day.
