2023 Polish Parliamentary Election Results
In what the Economist & Reuters have hailed as the most significant election in Poland since the end of communism, Poles delivered a major blow to the far-right Law & Justice Party (PiS) this Sunday. Due to attacks on women’s healthcare, LGBTQ+ rights and democratic erosion, the party which had been in power for eight years felt to many activists like the previous fight for democracy under the former soviet regime. The eastern European democracy saw a record turnout at 74%, effectively surpassing the 63% turnout that brought an end to communism 34 years ago. The success of the opposition came as a surprise to many onlookers as president of the Institute of Public Affairs Jacek Kucharczyk highlighted,
“The governing party also mobilized other state resources to help itself, including an unfair division of votes in electoral districts […] The electoral system was really tilted toward the government, […] you could say that the opposition had to fight this election with one hand tied behind its back and they still won.”
Three main opposition parties garnered ~54% of the vote.
- Civic Coalition (Christian democracy/center-right) 30.7%
- Third Way (agrarianism/liberalism/center-right) 14.4%
- New Left (social democracy/center-left) 8.6%
Advocates for democracy, women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights and the environment across Poland are breathing a sigh of relief in response to this defeat of the far-right.
What happens now?
231 seats are needed for a majority in the lower house of Polish parliament (the Sejm). Law & Justice have won 198 seats (if exit polls are correct) and it doesn’t have very many potential coalition partners. At most, with the far-right Confederation party, they’d only reach 212 seats, falling 19 seats short. The opposition on the other hand seems to be positioned to easily surpass the 231-seat threshold.
The opposition is ideologically stretched from many parties of the center-right to the left. A significant point of agreement across the spectrum is a return to the liberalization around the rules on abortion. In just about every other area, these parties have a wide range of positions and priorities to work out if they’re to form a functioning coalition government.
The next step in forming a government is for the current President Andrzej Duda to nominate the next president for parliament to vote in or reject. This is a formality that members of the opposition are asking for Duda to skip so that they can form their own government separate from PiS influence. Due to Duda’s PiS connection and an ideologically fractured parliament, this process of forming government could take weeks or months (with some estimating it could take until mid-December).
What does this mean for the rest of Europe?
Along with many Poles who worried about and resisted the havoc of the far-right in their own country, many international and European observers eagerly awaited Sunday’s outcome.
Many in Brussels were particularly interested in the result of this election in hopes of solidifying or dismissing the appearance of a recently emerging pattern in European politics of electing populist & retrogressive candidates (most recent examples include Italy’s Meloni and Slovakia’s Fico). European onlookers were also interested in this election for its implications for Poland-EU relations. Under PiS over the last eight years, Poland-EU relations were tense and deteriorating. The results of Sunday’s election provide grounds to believe (and celebrate) Poland’s return to better relations with the EU.
As the EU’s fifth largest economy, Poland has also been a crucial ally and supporter of Ukraine. As murmurs of trembling support for Ukraine surface across democratic countries internationally, the likely deterioration of support for Poland under another PiS government would’ve weakened international resolve to restore Ukrainian sovereignty. A PiS loss and the potential return of Donald Tusk have been interpreted by many onlookers to be a sign of Poland’s commitment to fending off Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
The return of center-right to left-wing government also provides a boost to European parties that orbit around the political center. Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director of the Eurasia Group consultancy in Europe has pointed out that, “Tusk doing well, and the EPP performing well will reinforce the chances of a centrist majority” made up of the center-right conservative European People’s Party, center to center-right liberal Renew Group and the center-left Socialists and Democrats.
The task ahead of rebuilding what the far-right mangled will be tough, nevertheless, interviews on the ground in Poland imply a sense of optimism and hope that Poland’s democracy could be making a much-desired comeback.
